Commodities: Real
Diversification
Commodities like oil or wheat tend to prosper just as financial assets
(stocks and bonds) decline - in times of rising inflation.

| Performance
During Bear Markets (1970-1997) |
| Year |
Stocks |
Commodities |
| 1973 |
(14.69) |
74.96 |
| 1974 |
(26.47) |
39.51 |
| 1977 |
(7.16) |
10.37 |
| 1981* |
(4.91) |
(23.01) |
| October 1987 |
(21.54) |
1.05 |
| 1990 |
(3.10) |
29.08 |
| October 1997 |
(3.34) |
2.75 |
* In 1981, the U.S. experienced
disinflation. Both commodities and stocks fell.
* Downside Protection. Commodities have often been
negatively correlated to stocks, and other financial assets. As the stock market weakens,
this negative correlation tends to grow stronger. So including an allocation to an
otherwise volatile asset class like commodities can actually help lower risk, by providing
some protection right when you need it most.
How are profitability , volatility and risk affected when managed
futures are included in an investment portfolio? Harvard Business School Professor John E.
Litner found that including managed futures in a portfolio "reduces volatility while
enhancing return." And that such portfolios "have substantially less risk at
every possible level of return than portfolios of stocks, or stocks and bonds."
For the 10-year period ending in December 1995, data studied by the
Managed Futures Association, an industry organization, show that managed future
investments had a compound annual return of 12.2%. That compares respectably with the
14.9% return that common stocks had during the same period, one of the strongest stock
markets in U.S. History. Further, it exceeded the 9.7% compound return on bonds and the
6.8% return on international stocks, another popular vehicle for portfolio
diversification.
The analysis also showed that for the same 10-year period a
portfolio with 30% managed futures and 70% stocks had roughly the same profitability
(14.6%) as a portfolio composed entirely of stocks (14.9%), but with nearly one-third less
volatility. That can be important to an investor seeking to avoid wide swings in portfolio
value.*
* It should not be assumed all portfolios including
managed futures accounts have had - or will have - the same or similar results. Investment
performance is influenced by the structure of the portfolio, market conditions, and the
success of the trading advisor.
Preferred Securities Group, Inc.
5301 N. Federal Highway, Suite 150
Boca Raton, Florida 33487
1-800-909-9150
Tel. (561) 998-2170
Fax (561) 998-2177
Email: info@preferredsecurities.com
Member N.A.S.D., S.I.P.C.
Florida |